.

[ Kevin D. Hoover (2011), “Counterfactuals and causal structure”, in P. Illari et al. (eds.)(2011), Causality in the Sciences (Oxford University Press), pp. 338-360. ]

16.1 Introduction

16.2 Woodward’s manipulation account

16.3 The structural account

16.3.1 Simon on causal order

16.3.2 Modularity and difference-making

16.3.3 Counterfactual analysis

16.4 Counterfactuals and policy analysis

16.4.1 Impostor counterfactuals

16.4.2 An illustration from monetary economics

16.4.3 Internal and external validity

16.4.4 Epistemic opportunism

16.1 Introduction

338

인과성은 반-사실적 조건문에 관한 분석과 밀접히 관련됨.

338-339

루이스

우드워드도 원인을 반-사실적으로 정의함.

카트라이트는 이를 공격함

339

우드워드의 설명은 Peter Spirtes, Clark Glymour and Richard Scheines (2001) and Judea Pearl (2000)에서 도출함

16.2 Woodward’s manipulation account

340-341

우드워드의 설명은 루이스의 설명과 근본적으로 다름

(DC) A necessary and sufficient condition for X to be a direct cause of Y with respect to some variable set V is that there be a possible intervention on X that will change Y (or the probability distribution of Y) when all other variables in V besides X and Y are held fixed at some value by interventions. (Woodward 2003, p. 55)

Woodward (2003, p. 98) intervention variable (I) for a variable X with respect to a variable Y은 네 가지 기준

1. I causes X;

2. I acts as a switch so that when it takes the right values it can eliminate the effect of all other variables in determining X;

3. any causal path from I to Y goes through X;

4. I is independent of any variable Z that causes Y otherwise than through X.

341

우드워드의 직접적 인과 정의에서 반-사실성의 역할은 두 가지

16.3 The structural account

343

구조적 설명은 Spirtes et al과 Pearl의 그래프-이론적 분석과 관련됨.

16.3.1 Simon on causal order

16.3.2 Modularity and difference-making

16.3.3 Counterfactual analysis

16.4 Counterfactuals and policy analysis

16.4.1 Impostor counterfactuals

16.4.2 An illustration from monetary economics

353-354

structural vector autoregressions

354

루카스 비판

357

경제학 등에서의 인과적 지식에 대한 카트라이트의 회의주의

16.4.3 Internal and external validity

16.4.4 Epistemic opportunism

(2023.04.29.)

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2022/11/28

[강연] 자현스님

2022/11/27

[경제학의 철학] Hoover (2011), “Counterfactuals and causal structure” 요약 정리 (미완성)

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